Against the Spin

In the past two days, Bangalore have beaten Rajasthan, virtually ensuring their qualification, and Delhi moved closer to clinching a spot by toughing it out in a low-scoring duel versus Chennai.  Only in theory is it possible for Bangalore to not make it — their net run rate is so high, with one game left to spare, that it’d take a defeat of huge proportions to push it below 0.200.  For Bangalore to fall out of the top 4, they’d need to be overtaken by Rajasthan, Deccan or Kolkata, all of which have net run rates below -0.400.  In short, that’s not happening.  Congrats, Bangalore fans, your “Test team” is through for the second straight year!

Delhi continue to do just enough to qualify.  Once comfortably situated in 2nd, they dropped three games on the trot, before beating Chennai to stay on track for the semifinals.  They’re an 87.5% chance to make it for an unprecedented third straight year.  Delhi don’t play again until the 18th, so they’ll know exactly what they need to do going into that game versus Deccan.  If Deccan beat Punjab tomorrow, and Chennai do the same on the 18th, Delhi will need to beat Deccan on the 18th.  If either of those teams loses to Punjab, then Delhi are through regardless of their result versus Deccan.

Tomorrow’s Game:

Another must-win game for Deccan, and more net practice for Punjab.  If Deccan lose, Delhi are almost certainly through, and Deccan are left to hope that Chennai & Rajasthan lose, and then they beat Delhi on the 18th.  But if Deccan win, they’ll have a 63% chance of advancing, and can clinch it on their own by beating Delhi.

There’s still a small chance (3.1%) a team can sneak into 4th place with just 12 points, but it’s far more likely (96.1%) that 14 points will be needed.  So Chennai & Rajasthan both have must-win last games.  Thankfully those games are against Punjab & Kolkata respectively, the bottom two teams in the table.  While 14 points will likely be necessary to end up in the top 4, that alone is not sufficient — it’s probable that multiple teams end up on 14 points, and fight it out over net run rate.  If a team wants to grab a semifinal spot without depending on that lottery, it needs 16 points.  Chennai and Rajasthan can’t get there, so their qualification is not in their hands alone — they can both win their last game and still find themselves sitting out.  Deccan however, have two games in hand, so if they win both, they’re through without worrying about net run rate.

Here’s the updated table (after the game on Thursday, April 15):