Against the Spin

Another update to my earlier post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s game. Deccan stayed alive by beating Bangalore — they now have a 30% chance of going through, still behind Chennai’s 39.6%.  How can Deccan, with 12 points and 2 games in hand, still have less chance of qualifying than Chennai who have only 10 points, albeit with 3 games in hand?  The answer lies in net run rate.  My simulation suggests that there is a 90% chance that the 4th place team will have 14 points, and (independently) a 79% chance that the fifth place team will end up with 14 points.  That means that net run rate will most likely determine who goes through.  And Deccan are quite far behind Chennai on that metric.  Of course, they could surprise everyone (and my model) by winning their last games so decisively that their net run rate crosses Chennai’s; not likely, though.  So Deccan may well need 16 points for the semis, unless some of the other teams choke.

The good news is that 16 points will see Deccan through.  And not just Deccan.  The probability of the 5th place team having less than 16 points is 99.8% — in other words, rack up 16 points and you’re basically on your way to the semifinals.  Each team except Punjab can reach 16 points if they perform well enough over their last games. So each team still controls its own destiny: Win all the rest of your games, and a semifinal spot is (nearly) guaranteed.

Keep reading for a preview of how tomorrow’s games may affect the standings.

Tomorrow’s Games:

The Chennai-Kolkata game is key to both teams’ fortunes.  A win for Chennai will put them ahead of Rajasthan & Deccan in the standings, and into the all-important 4th place.  From there, they’ll have a 60% chance of going through, and Kolkata will really have their backs to the will, with a measly 6% chance of making it.  Kolkata will need a big win to jump into 4th, because Rajasthan are currently ahead on net run rate.  A win will push their qualification chances to around 40%, depending on the winner of Mumbai-Delhi.  The bottom line is that this is a must-win game for both teams … and yet only one team will walk away with the points tomorrow.

The Mumbai-Delhi game is less crucial.  Mumbai are already through, and even if Delhi lose, they’ll probably hold on to their third place spot in the table, and a 71% chance at going through.  Of course, a win would probably be enough for Delhi to advance (~95%), and would let Gambhir & Co relax for the last game or two.

Here’s the updated table (after the game on Monday, April 12):