Race for the IPL Semifinals: Rajasthan stutter, Mumbai seal the deal
Quick update to yesterday’s post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s games. Rajasthan are the main movers, with their loss to Mumbai bringing their qualification probability down to 49.8%. Chennai are the beneficiaries of that move, and now have a 40.3% chance of making it through. I also added a slightly more sophisticated way of accounting for changes in net run rate with wins/losses, so these new numbers should be more accurate. Factoring in today’s results, its increasingly likely (86%) that 14 points will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.
Delhi’s loss to Punjab doesn’t change much for either team. Punjab still have about a much of a chance of going forward as Chris Martin does of hitting a Test century — mathematically possible, but not even worth mentioning. Delhi too are still in a strong position, though their chances dropped from 89% to 83%. Even if they lose their third match on the trot to Mumbai on Tuesday, they’ll still have an over 70% chance of going through. That’s what a strong early season and a healthy net run rate does for you.
Tomorrow’s Game:
The Deccan Chargers’ Monday game against the Bangalore Royal Challengers is a must-win for Deccan — their chances of making the semis drop to 1.6% with a loss. If Bangalore win, they are almost guaranteed to go through (99.6%).
Here’s the updated table (after the completed games on Sunday, April 11):
| Team | Probability of Qualifying |
Change | Current Points |
| Mumbai Indians | 100.0% | +1.0% | 16 |
| Bangalore Royal Challengers | 87.0% | +3.5% | 12 |
| Delhi Daredevils | 85.1% | −4.3% | 12 |
| Rajasthan Royals | 49.8% | −14.9% | 12 |
| Chennai Superkings | 40.3% | +8.7% | 10 |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 22.1% | +4.2% | 10 |
| Deccan Chargers | 15.8% | +2.0% | 10 |
| Kings XI Punjab | 0.0% | unch. | 8 |
Fantastic number-crunching, Aneesh. I do think these numbers are pretty representative of the quality of cricket we’ve seen from the various teams this time – although Punjab has been somewhat spirited recently, the dominance of the Mumbai Indians has been pretty clear throughout. Good stuff, and thanks for your good work!
I like your posts, Aneesh! You play your game well with the numbers and it all cooks up an interesting read!
u know wat aneesh..ur stats r gud..but mark my words..Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkota and deccan..qualify for semis. We will have a mumbai kolkata finals and kolkta wins ipl 2010.
Thanks for the feedback, guys.
@Karan: Thanks for your prediction … only time will tell.