Against the Spin

The round-robin stage of the IPL is drawing to a tense conclusion.  While Mumbai are almost certainly in, and Punjab are almost certainly out, the fate of the other six teams is very much up in the air.  There are 13 games left to play, and a number of possible outcomes.  So, I ran a simulation that calculates all 8192 ways the last 13 games could finish up (assuming no ties), and assessed each team’s position in each of those 8192 cases, breaking ties on the current net run rate.  Without further ado, here are the results:

Rajasthan, despite being level with Bangalore on points, are less assured of going through, thanks to a weak net run rate (NRR).  Meanwhile, a strong net run rate could see Chennai through if they can gain a game on Rajasthan.  The following chart shows the number of points that will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.

Teams will probably need at least 14 points to advance, so Chennai, Kolkata, and Deccan will need to finish strong by winning at least 2 of their last 3 games.  All three of these teams are facing an uphill battle for the semis, and the Chennai-Kolkata match on April 13 will be of huge importance — the loser will be all but out of the running.  Net run rate will likely be a factor, and Chennai currently have the edge here.

Just for fun, we can also use the simulations to see who might be the league topper.

Unsurprisingly, Mumbai are the favorites to finish first at the end of the round robin stage.  But even Shane Warne’s boys have an outside shot, if they win their last 3 matches, and Mumbai struggle. Delhi too have a chance to finish on top, for the second year running.

These simulations were run on April 10, after 48 matches of the IPL (and before Sunday’s Delhi-Punjab & Mumbai-Rajasthan matches).  I’ll update these simulations periodically as the IPL draws to a close.  If you enjoyed this post, subscribe to receive future posts by email — no spam, I promise.