The Ashes: Australia without McGrath and Warne
With the Ashes heating up to a tense finale, Karl van der Merwe wondered on the Against the Spin facebook page how England would have fared if Australia had Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. The short answer: not well. Australia have been a dominant side with the two bowling greats, and merely a quite competitive one without them.
I used Cricinfo’s Statsguru to take a look at how Australia have done in Ashes Tests since 1990, with and without this extraordinary pair. The arbitrary date restriction is to try to control for the quality of both teams, and still allow for there to be several matches without McGrath & Warne. It’s not perfect though; for example, an Aussie team containing McGrath and Warne was also more likely to contain Gilchrist, Ponting and Steve Waugh, making it a better team even beyond the presence of the two bowlers. There are too many complicating factors here for this to be considered anything of a definitive statement, but it’s still a fun fact for Aussie fans to rub in the faces of their English friends. Even with McGrath or Warne absent, Australia still win nearly half the Tests they play against England, and lose just about a quarter.
When both McGrath and Warne’s names were on the team sheet, Australia won a remarkable 76% of the Ashes Tests they played, and lost only 3 out of 25. With just one of the two in the lineup, Australia played 16 Ashes Tests, winning 8, and losing 5. And even with both of these greats gone, Australia won four matches out of ten, and lost just two. England have been more competitive when facing an Australian side devoid of McGrath and Warne, but have still struggled against their arch-nemesis.
